The Traditional Latin Mass WILL Overtake the Novus Ordo before 2066…
…Unless someone puts a stop to it.
The Traditional Latin Mass WILL Overtake the Novus Ordo within this century, and here are the stats to prove it:
According to Pew Research, there are approx. 52 Million Catholic Adults in the United States.
Ref. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/04/12/9-facts-about-us-catholics/
Around 25% (2021 Pew Research Study) attend Mass weekly, or approx. 13 Million Catholics in the US attend Mass weekly.
There are 17,755 Parishes in the United States (with an additional 585 pastoral centers and 2,618 missions).
Ref. https://www.usccb.org/offices/public-affairs/laity-and-parishes
There are around 658 Parishes that celebrate the Traditional Latin Mass.
Ref. https://crisismagazine.com/opinion/the-growth-of-the-latin-mass-a-survey
The average number of weekend Masses was 3.8 (as of 2010).
Ref. https://www.ncronline.org/news/study-finds-us-catholic-parishes-growing-larger-more-complex
Dividing the total Mass Attending Population by the total number of Masses ((Total Number of Parishes + Pastoral Centers + Missions) x Average Number of Weekend Masses) in the United Stated yields approx. 163 Catholics who attend the average Mass in the United States (13,000,000 Catholics / 79,640 Weekend Masses).
The Average number of Catholics who attend the Traditional Latin Mass is around 196 per Mass across the 658 Parishes. 15% do not offer the Latin Mass every Sunday or around 99 of the 658 who offer the Latin Mass, and this data is not relevant to my write-up. Of the 559 remaining Parishes offering the Latin Mass, 52% offer at least one every weekend, and 33% offer more than one. Based on this data, we will assume approximately 217 Parishes offer 2 or more Latin Masses every Sunday, counting around 434 Latin Masses every weekend, and an additional 342 Parishes offering one Traditional Latin Mass every Sunday with a total greater than 776 Traditional Latin Masses every weekend.
Ref. https://crisismagazine.com/opinion/the-growth-of-the-latin-mass-a-survey
This would put the total number of Traditional Latin Mass Attendance in the United States at greater than 152,096 on any given weekend. (776 Masses x 196 Average Attendees) or approx. 1.1% of the Catholics Attending Mass in the United States every weekend.
This seems like a small number, but it doesn’t tell the full story, with less than 1% (0.97%) of the total number of Masses being a Traditional Latin Mass, they account for greater than 1.1% of the total weekly Catholic Mass Attendees.
The total number of Novus Ordo Catholics attending Mass Weekly per Mass is approx. 163 ((Total Catholic Population - Traditional Latin Mass Attendees) / (Total Masses - Average Traditional Latin Masses)) (12,847,904 / 78,864).
This means that Traditional Latin Mass Attendance, on Average, is 20% higher, and over the course of January 2019 to June 2021, an increase of greater than 30% was measured, (approx. 145 per Mass in January of 2019 to 196 per Mass in June of 2021.)
Ref. https://crisismagazine.com/opinion/the-growth-of-the-latin-mass-a-survey
If that growth continues, the Traditional Latin Mass will see this kind of growth in United States:
Jun. of 2026: approx. 197,724
Jan. of 2029: approx. 257,042
Jun. of 2031: approx. 334,154
Jan. of 2034: approx. 434,401
Jun. of 2036: approx. 564,721
Jan. of 2039: approx. 734,138
Jun. of 2041: approx. 954,379
Jan. of 2044: approx. 1,240,693
Jun. of 2046: approx. 1,612,901
Jan. of 2049: approx. 2,096,772
Jun. of 2051: approx. 2,725,804
Jan. of 2054: approx. 3,543,545
Jun. of 2056: approx. 4,606,609
Jan. of 2059: approx. 5,988,591
Jun. of 2061: approx. 7,785,169
Jan. of 2064: approx. 10,120,720
Jun. of 2066: approx. 13,156,936
Jan. of 2069: approx. 17,104,017
Jun. of 2071: approx. 22,235,222
Jan. of 2074: approx. 28,905,785
And so on…
Based on this, it is within the realm of possibility that the Traditional Latin Mass could overtake the Novus Ordo within the twenty-first century, as early as the 2060s.
This is why it is being restricted.
Sincerely,
Your Brother in Spirit, Frater Spiritus
Follow me on Twitter / X: @FraterSpiritus
It’s certainly not going to take anything like that long in Europe.
If you take into account the decline in NO attendance, it's going to happen sooner than that. Most NO Masses I've been to have an average age of about 60, for TLM I'd say it's about 25.