I think the Vatican has plans to move the Church toward Protestantism long before 2066. Traditional Catholics are being isolated into the FSSP, SSPX and other traditional factions within the Church. Traditionis Custodes is designed to remove traditional Catholics, who won't accept the Novus Ordo liturgy, from the diocesan communities and move them to those designated TLM groups within the Church. The reason for this is that there is a plan at the Vatican to make changes to doctrine that are essentially diametrically opposed to sacred tradition. We can see this in all that Francis has done and is doing to the Papacy and pastoral teachings. They'll try to creep these changes over years of policy, but there is always a risk that traditionalists will call them a step too far and will openly rebel against the Pope and the Vatican institutions. If this happens, and because traditional Catholics will have been corralled into these side communities, the Vatican will not need to worry about such a rebellion affecting the diocesan based Church.
If the FSSP, SSPX or any other small traditional groups, want to rebel against the coming changes, the Vatican will just deal with them through the canonical disciplinary process (i.e. excommunication, etc.), just like they're now doing with Archbishop Vigano. The Vatican has already written off the SSPX and FSSP and have designs to remove them from the Church at some point if they do not comply with the coming changes. So I don't think this will go on for the next 40+ years. The Vatican knows they do not have that kind of time to do what they want to do.
Their goal is to change Catholic doctrine and interpretations of sacred tradition, because they believe the Catholic Church went off the rails with "clericalism" centuries ago. They believe this caused all the history of schism in the Church, including the Protestant reformation. In effect, they think that the reformation was at least a semi-valid response to the corruption of "clericalism" within the Church, and now they want to return the Church to where they think it should have always been. And where they think it should be is not what the Church has ever known as the Catholic faith!
Buckle your seat belts, it's going to be a bumpy ride.
If you take into account the decline in NO attendance, it's going to happen sooner than that. Most NO Masses I've been to have an average age of about 60, for TLM I'd say it's about 25.
If you look at my second article on here, I delve into details like that, but sadly unless a Pope makes the TLM easy to access or the NO goes away, it’s going to take time:
Your analysis does assume that growth will be linear. Population change tends to be logistic, which in theory could be modeled by linear for sufficiently short time intervals, but you did need to extrapolate pretty far to get to the crossover point. The trend is certainly right, but I’m not sure how much predictive power it has.
While yes I did extrapolate farther than what is generally acceptable, I did preclude that statement with “if this trend continues” and we need to recognize that Traditional Latin Mass attendees are having ~4 kids each with a 75% retention rate into adulthood, that means that every family, on average is bringing 3 new people into the church long term, which is a 1.5x multiplier, and that is higher than even my estimates.
It’s certainly not going to take anything like that long in Europe.
I think the Vatican has plans to move the Church toward Protestantism long before 2066. Traditional Catholics are being isolated into the FSSP, SSPX and other traditional factions within the Church. Traditionis Custodes is designed to remove traditional Catholics, who won't accept the Novus Ordo liturgy, from the diocesan communities and move them to those designated TLM groups within the Church. The reason for this is that there is a plan at the Vatican to make changes to doctrine that are essentially diametrically opposed to sacred tradition. We can see this in all that Francis has done and is doing to the Papacy and pastoral teachings. They'll try to creep these changes over years of policy, but there is always a risk that traditionalists will call them a step too far and will openly rebel against the Pope and the Vatican institutions. If this happens, and because traditional Catholics will have been corralled into these side communities, the Vatican will not need to worry about such a rebellion affecting the diocesan based Church.
If the FSSP, SSPX or any other small traditional groups, want to rebel against the coming changes, the Vatican will just deal with them through the canonical disciplinary process (i.e. excommunication, etc.), just like they're now doing with Archbishop Vigano. The Vatican has already written off the SSPX and FSSP and have designs to remove them from the Church at some point if they do not comply with the coming changes. So I don't think this will go on for the next 40+ years. The Vatican knows they do not have that kind of time to do what they want to do.
Their goal is to change Catholic doctrine and interpretations of sacred tradition, because they believe the Catholic Church went off the rails with "clericalism" centuries ago. They believe this caused all the history of schism in the Church, including the Protestant reformation. In effect, they think that the reformation was at least a semi-valid response to the corruption of "clericalism" within the Church, and now they want to return the Church to where they think it should have always been. And where they think it should be is not what the Church has ever known as the Catholic faith!
Buckle your seat belts, it's going to be a bumpy ride.
If you take into account the decline in NO attendance, it's going to happen sooner than that. Most NO Masses I've been to have an average age of about 60, for TLM I'd say it's about 25.
If you look at my second article on here, I delve into details like that, but sadly unless a Pope makes the TLM easy to access or the NO goes away, it’s going to take time:
https://open.substack.com/pub/fraterspiritus/p/the-traditional-latin-mass-is-growing?r=4014oo&utm_medium=ios
Your analysis does assume that growth will be linear. Population change tends to be logistic, which in theory could be modeled by linear for sufficiently short time intervals, but you did need to extrapolate pretty far to get to the crossover point. The trend is certainly right, but I’m not sure how much predictive power it has.
While yes I did extrapolate farther than what is generally acceptable, I did preclude that statement with “if this trend continues” and we need to recognize that Traditional Latin Mass attendees are having ~4 kids each with a 75% retention rate into adulthood, that means that every family, on average is bringing 3 new people into the church long term, which is a 1.5x multiplier, and that is higher than even my estimates.
Deus Vult
I agree with Peter. Extrapolations are problematic.
I was extremely conservative with my extrapolations because trads have tons of kids 🤣
I really hope so. This is very encouraging!